Poll: Economic pessimism soars to 10-year high

December 5, 2022
New Zealand money (file image).

Kiwis are feeling more pessimistic about the economy's immediate future than at any other point in the last decade, today's 1News Kantar Public Poll shows.

Respondents were asked: "Do you think during the next 12 months the economy will be in a better state than at present, or in a worse state?"

Of those polled, 18% responded 'better', 21% responded 'same' and 61% responded 'worse'.

It's a massive shift since September, when 36% responded 'better' and 38% responded 'worse'.

And it's the worst New Zealanders' economic outlook has been since at least 2012.

1News Kantar Public poll result for December 2022.

It comes as the Reserve Bank has warned the economy is "likely" to enter into a recession next year, after a 75 basis point bump took the official cash rate to 4.25% earlier this month; the ninth rise in a row.

The housing market has already seen significant falls in property prices. The average asking price for a house fell below $900,000 in November for the first time since mid-2021, according to the latest data, with predictions it could sit around $890,000 by the end of the year.

Inflation is at 7.2%, only slightly below June's 32-year high of 7.3%.

Unemployment is at a historically low 3.3%, the latest quarterly figures show.

'We are well placed' - PM

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

Asked about the poll results, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said: "No question, as a trading nation, if our major markets, if countries overseas are facing significant headwinds and turbulent times, that has a knock-on effect for us.

"But we are well placed. We have low unemployment, we've kept debt down, we're supporting our exporters and of course we're doing what we can to trim back our government spending as well.

"All of that places us in a good position to take on what's coming our way," she said.

See the full results and methodology here.

Between November 26-30, 2022, 1011 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (503) and online, using online panels (508). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. For party support and preferred Prime Minister, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, education level and ethnic identification. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel.