Poll: National and ACT strengthen, Luxon closes gap on Ardern

December 5, 2022
1News Kantar Public poll result for December 2022.

National has increased its lead over Labour in the latest 1News Kantar Public Poll, remaining on-track to form a coalition government with ACT at next year's election.

And while Labour leader Jacinda Ardern remains ahead in the preferred PM rating, National leader Christopher Luxon has further closed the gap.

In the party results, National is up 1% to 38%, Labour is down 1% to 33%, ACT is up 2% to 11%, and the Green Party continues to hold steady on 9%.

New Zealand First rises 1% to 4%, one step closer to a possible seat in Parliament for the next cycle, and Te Pāti Māori holds steady on 2%.

Translated to seats in Parliament, National (49) and ACT (15) are together projected to secure 64 MPs based on today's results, more than the 61 needed to govern.

Labour (42) and the Greens (11) are projected to win 53, rising to 56 if Te Pāti Māori were to join (assuming Rawiri Waititi holds the seat of Waiariki).

1News Kantar Public poll result for December 2022.

These poll results continue National's recent momentum. They reached 39% in March and May, dropping slightly to 37% in both August and September before today's bump.

Labour's popularity continues to trend down, with 33% in today's poll its joint-lowest result since winning the election in 2017. It matches its 33% ranking in August this year.

Preferred prime minister

1News Kantar Public poll result for December 2022.

For preferred prime minister between all possible candidates, Ardern drops 1% to 29%, while Luxon is at 23% (up 2%).

It's the closest gap between the two since Luxon was appointed National leader last November, and the lowest result for Ardern since August 2017 - before she was prime minister.

David Seymour rose 2% to 6%, Winston Peters held steady on 2% and Chlöe Swarbrick was on 2% (up 1%).

Leaders respond

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and National leader Christopher Luxon.

Responding to the results, Ardern said today that the Government's job "is to focus on the challenges that New Zealand is facing right now".

She added "there is no question it is a difficult time to be in government" but stressed that she and Labour have "experience of tough times".

"You see us as a government coming forward with ideas and proposals to take on those challenges. Contrast that to the alternative - the Opposition has not produced those ideas.

"Our job is to crack on because we have the privilege of governing, and that is what we're doing," she said.

Luxon said "polls will bounce around…but fundamentally, this is showing New Zealanders feel the country's going in the wrong direction".

"What they can see is a government that's just not getting things done," he said.

"This is a fantastic country, we have great potential, we have great opportunities ahead of us but we're just not realising them, and that's what Kiwis are very frustrated about."

Luxon refused to be drawn on potential coalition arrangements and Cabinet appointments, saying "it's way too premature to be talking about electoral calculations".

See the full results and methodology here.

Between November 26-30, 2022, 1011 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (503) and online, using online panels (508). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. For party support and preferred Prime Minister, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, education level and ethnic identification. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel.