Analysis: A week ago the Government announced billions of dollars in spending.
But there’s been no Budget bounce in our latest 1News Kantar Public poll.
More often than not National governments have seen a post-Budget boost in our May poll numbers but Grant Robertson hasn’t been able to do this for the last three years.
In fact, in the last six Labour Budgets - except for 2020 when there was a dramatic 18% surge in the wake of Covid spending - Labour's support has fallen after their Budget announcements.
When you are announcing this much spending you’d want voters to feel a bit better about life.
This poll shows just how crucial the Greens success is to Labour.
The Green Party infighting around Elizabeth Kerekere cost them 4 percentage points and that has cost Labour the election, should voters have been off to the polls this week.
If the Greens can’t get it together the left will be sitting in the opposition benches.
It’s clear the public have no time for political scrapping when they’re struggling.
This result with be a jolt for the Greens and will demonstrate the need for discipline and unity if they want to have an influence on the political landscape.
This poll will also push pause on the chatter around Christopher Luxon’s leadership.
On these results he would be Prime Minister and that’s a hard thing to argue with.
The fact he’s stagnating in the late teens - 18% - in the preferred prime minister numbers is a worry but he’s still in double digits.
National may start to push the message of a “strong team” if he continues to struggle to get people to like him.
National have tried to say people don’t know Luxon but it seems the more people get to know him the less they like him.
In the post-Budget poll last year he was sitting on 25% and we’ve seen a steady drop, with 17% in March and now 18% this time.
Labour sees Chris Hipkins as it’s biggest asset - he's on 25% - but right now that’s not the case for Luxon. Interestingly 1% want to see his deputy Nicola Willis as Prime Minister.
Te Pāti Māori have lost their kingmaker status despite all the attention around wooing Meka Whaitiri from Labour as a candidate.
The party had a lot of attention and it would have been keen to capitalise on that.
Interestingly, the co-leaders are registering when it comes preferred prime minister, below 1%, but a glimmer none the less, and that shows the public do like them when they get a chance to see them.
National saying 'no thanks' to working with them also gave them a lot of air time but still no bounce.
Our regular polling has swung back and forward. It still feels like it’s going to be a dog fight over the next four months. It will be close so the pressure is on.
National - 37% (up 3%)
Labour - 35% (down 1%)
ACT - 11% (steady)
Green - 7% (down 4%)
New Zealand First - 3% (down 0.1%)
Te Pāti Māori - 2.4% (down 0.2%)
The Opportunities Party - 1.4% (up 0.4%)
Seats in the House
Assuming Rawiri Waititi retains Waiariki:
National - 47 seats
Labour - 46 seats
ACT - 15 seats
Green - 9 seats
Te Pāti Māori - 3 seats
Preferred prime minister
Chris Hipkins - 25% (down 2%)
Christopher Luxon - 18% (down 1%)
David Seymour - 7% (up 1%)
Winston Peters - 2% (up 1%)
Chlöe Swarbrick - 2% (up 1.1%)
Jacinda Ardern - 1% (down 1%)
Between May 20 and May 24, 2023, 1002 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (502) and online, using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.