A leading climate scientist hopes a spate of climate extremes hitting the world right now will galvanise action before it is too late.
NIWA principal scientist and climate expert Dr Sam Dean told Q+A with Jack Tame that we’re right now witnessing a glimpse of the effects a buildup of carbon emissions will bring in the future.
“We are going to see the hottest July on record,” said Dean, speaking about the unprecedented average global temperatures seen over the month, which will break the previous record set in June.
“The earth is extremely sunburnt at the moment, and it’s warm round Antarctica where we have record low sea ice even though it’s winter.”
Sea surface temperatures especially are far higher than normal, and the marine heatwave in the Atlantic is “just off the charts,” said Dean.
The extreme temperatures has caused several high profile disasters, including wildfires throughout Greece which required the island of Rhodes to undertake the largest evacuation in the country’s modern history.
Across Greece this summer, wildfires have caused 5 deaths, dozens of injuries, and at least $600 million in damage.
Dean said that on the current trajectory, there is now effectively no chance global temperature rises will be kept to 1.5 degrees, a key goal of the Paris climate agreement.
“Realistically two degrees is something we can still achieve, if we all get to net zero by the mid-2040s, 2050 at the very latest,” he said.
“But that’s tough – I don’t think there’s a lot of evidence at the moment that anyone is making the emissions reductions at the moment to achieve that.”
“Something more significant is going to have to happen, and I do worry that it’s going to take something severe like the weather we’ve seen where deaths start to happen before we’re willing to really take action at the global scale required.”
The most recent round of emissions reporting showed New Zealand’s gross emissions had dropped slightly across 2022, but Dean said that wasn’t the complete picture “when you burrow into it.”
He noted that emissions were down in part because wet weather had allowed much more use of hydro power, rather than turning to coal-fired power plants, which are still necessary to meet New Zealand’s electricity demand during dry spells.
“We can’t rely on the rain like this – in fact we really don’t want the rain to keep falling like this,” said Dean, referencing the flooding which has hit parts of New Zealand this year.
Dean issued a challenge to politicians and the media with the election on the way, saying he hopes climate will be at the forefront of debates.
“I try to stay positive, and I think we are a capable people and we can do really clever things – I have hope.”
“But we also have to be really critical. We have to be critical of what people say they’re going to do, and what they are going to do, and that comes back to you in the media – you know, to make sure that climate change is an issue at the next election.”
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