TVNZ commentator and writer Scotty Stevenson and 1News sports writer Patrick McKendry discuss the Jordie Barrett issue, which All Black is carrying the heaviest expectations, and other burning questions ahead of Saturday's highly-anticipated World Cup opener.
Scotty, the All Blacks have received a potential blow with Jordie Barrett in doubt for the opening game due to a knee injury. Without coming across too doomsday as we kick things off, how much of a setback would his absence be?
SS: From a continuity point of view, it would be a massive downer for the All Blacks, especially considering the two options to replace Barrett are both light on game time. I think Barrett will still start the match, but in the event he isn’t right in time, do the selectors go for Anton Lienert-Brown or David Havili?
ALB has played just one full Test this year at 12 (in a lacklustre team performance against Australia in Dunedin) and has started just nine of his 64 tests at second five-eighth. David Havili hasn’t had any Test rugby this year but is probably more naturally suited to starting at 12, as he has in 16 of his 25 Tests.
Havili gets the nod for me, given the intuitive link with both Richie Mo’unga and Will Jordan.
On the subject of injuries, the French are falling faster than autumn leaves. Romain Ntamack and Paul Willemse are out of the tournament while loosehead Cyril Baille and midfielder Jonathan Danty won’t be suiting up against New Zealand this weekend.
Of Danty’s potential replacements, Yoram Moefana has played 12 in a Test once, and Arthur Vincent has started there just five times, and hasn’t played a Test in two years. Given first-five Matthieu Jalibert has started just 14 Tests, surely the All Blacks will have an edge here?
PM: Nice pivot towards some positivity! I believe they got an edge as soon as Ntamack was ruled out. He’s obviously class and torched the All Blacks a couple of times in their triumph in Paris at the end of 2021, a 40-25 win which All Blacks defence coach Scott McLeod revealed today that they are using as motivation ahead of Saturday’s game.
The All Blacks see Matthieu Jalibert as a worthy replacement — a man who can fit into the French system well — but he’s no Ntamack. Danty’s injury is another disruption in a key area, so yes, I think it’s advantage All Blacks, although Havili may still be having flashbacks to that intercept pass he threw in the latter stages of that dramatic Test a couple of years ago.
Speaking of that Test, it came before last year’s disastrous home series defeat to Ireland and all the coaching drama that went with it… and it hinted at an All Blacks’ maul vulnerability that the Irish exploited big time. Now that Jason Ryan has tightened things up there (recent performance against Boks notwithstanding), do you think the All Blacks’ pack have the ability to set a better platform this time?
SS: Glad you brought up the pack! Jason Ryan loves the grind, that’s for sure. He will have spent many hours reviewing that last effort against the Boks because I think they just got too ahead of themselves at maul time — probably because they know how much emphasis Ryan places on that area of the game and they were trying to impress him. He has that effect on teams.
If you’re looking for benchmarks, search no further than Ryan’s record with the Crusaders’ lineout maul defence. I think they conceded one try in six years in that department, and that was a penalty try.
There is a fine line between effective maul defence and the referee’s whistle, but the All Blacks will be very happy Jaco Peyper is officiating this opening test. They will be much more comfortable with his style than that of Matthew Carley, who had control of the Twickenham meltdown.
I think we have seen dramatic improvements in the way the All Blacks forwards operate with the ball, too. They have shown a greater desire to play direct, and they have simplified the ball-carrying options. They are a great chance at shortening up France’s defence, which the Wallabies were able to do several times in their last Test. Scott Barrett will be crucial to their chances here.
And that brings me to this: of all those likely to start for New Zealand in this first match, who do you think will have the most pressure on his shoulders?
PM: Good question. I was tempted to go for Richie Mo’unga due to his responsibilities in terms of leading an attack likely to be put under immense pressure early on, but I’ve decided on the man you’ve mentioned — Scott Barrett.
As always there will be expectations that Barrett sets the physicality bar with his defence, cleanouts and carries, but we all know what happened at Twickenham recently and like it or not the officials will likely be keeping a close eye on him at the Stade de France.
He has to go full throttle while staying on the right side of the laws and that is a very fine line to tread. If the All Blacks are to win at least parity against France up front, Barrett has to play very well. He can definitely do it but the expectations on him will be high, as well as the scrutiny.
I take it you are going for Barrett too?
SS: I agree that Scott Barrett’s performance must be both muscular and squeaky clean, but I’m taking a slightly different angle to you, Pat. I think Aaron Smith is key for the All Blacks. His performances largely go unheralded these days as it’s simply expected that he’ll get the job done. However, he’s up against Antoine Dupont, a player widely regarded as the best in the world right now.
Smith is going to have to be at his best in every facet of play — quick to the breakdown, annoying (for the opposition at least) at set piece, willing to take a running option when required (if for no other reason than to take his opposite out of play), and accurate from the box.
I’m convinced the halfback role takes on another dimension at Rugby World Cups. And I don’t see it being any different this time around. David Kirk, Nick Farr-Jones, Joost van der Westhuizen, George Gregan, Aaron Smith — all could have claimed to be the best in the world in their position when their teams triumphed at the World Cup. If Smith wants to lay down a marker, this is the weekend to do it.
So, I guess we should discuss the mood of the nation. I get a sense there is plenty of bet hedging out there. In all your many years of covering the sport, how would you best describe the tenor of the talk among the great unwashed?
PM: Cautious. At the start of the year I got the impression that this World Cup had all the makings of a relatively stress-free one for All Blacks fans because their team seemed so far off the pace as to not be serious contenders. Four wins in a row in the Rugby Championship and Bledisloe Cup (three very good ones and a scratchier one in Dunedin) changed that mood, I felt, because the All Blacks appeared to go to a new level. That Boks lesson at Twickenham has taken it down several notches, though. Now there will be same old quarter-final anxiety (assuming they make it that far).
France v New Zealand isn’t the only big one this weekend, as you know, Scotty. What other games are you looking forward to in particular?
SS: I like the word "cautious". It’s a real splinter in the butt cheek. Right, other games, yes. It’s actually a cracking opening weekend when you think about it and a very busy Sunday morning for the diehards. I’ll be intrigued to see the Australia v Georgia match (and that is the first time I’ve written that sentence). Then I’ll be glued to England v Argentina which is the only Pool D match of any consequence this tournament, in much the same way that France v New Zealand is the only one that matters in Pool A.
Monday morning’s Scotland v South Africa clash is a belter. The loser of that one is going to have a hard time escaping Pool B — Ireland is the other heavy hitter in that pool — so there’ll be an extra dash of hot sauce in that clash.
Then there’s Fiji v Wales… Don’t know about you Pat, but that match up excites me greatly…
So, let’s put a bow on this, Give me your biggest result of the opening weekend…
PM: The biggest result has to be the final score of the first game. I'll go out on a limb and say the All Blacks win by three points. The biggest "upset" will be Fiji beating Wales, and given the form of those two teams I'm not sure we could describe that as an upset.
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