NZ First has hit the magical 5% party vote threshold it needs to return to Parliament in the latest 1News Verian poll.
It’s up 1% on the previous poll on August 21, meaning a potential return for Winston Peters after October’s election.
Meanwhile National has continued to pull away from Labour, up 2% to 39% in the new poll, which was conducted between September 9 and 12.
ACT has fallen 3% to 10%.
National and ACT still have the numbers to form a two-party coalition government, explains 1News political editor Jessica Mutch McKay. (Source: 1News)
Labour’s hopes of returning to power continue to slide, with their support dipping 1% to 28%.
The Greens also fell, dropping 2% to 10%.
Labour’s Chris Hipkins and National’s Christopher Luxon are now tied in the preferred prime minister stakes at 23%, with Hipkins lifting 2% and Luxon up 3%.
Translated to seats in Parliament, today’s poll meant National could form a government with ACT – National’s 49 seats and ACT’s 13 seats coming to a total of 62.
Sixty-one is the magic number for a majority.
NZ First would return with seven seats based on today’s poll results, but crucially, wouldn’t be needed by National and ACT to form a government.
ACT’s David Seymour had previously said he wouldn’t work with Peters and NZ First after the election, while Luxon had consistently refused to say.
Labour, on the other hand, would have 35 seats. Combined with the Greens’ 13 and Te Pāti Māori’s three seats – provided Rawiri Waititi retains Waiariki - the total for the left bloc was just 51.
ACT’s 13 seats are down from 1News’ August poll which placed it on 17 – but would still eclipse its previous record of 10 seats in 2020.
Today’s poll put The Opportunities Party (TOP) steady on 1%, and The New Conservative Party up 1% on the same number.
A total of 10% of those surveyed didn’t know who they would vote for or refused to say.
Luxon managed to draw level with Hipkins in the preferred prime minister stakes, having been 1% behind at the previous poll.
Seymour dropped 1% to 5%, while Peters was up 1% to 4%.
Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick (1%) and National’s deputy leader Nicola Willis (1%) both fell 1%.
1News will be polling weekly until October 14’s election.
Party vote
National – 39% (up 2%)
Labour - 28% (down 1%)
Greens - 10% (down 2%)
ACT - 10% (down 3%)
New Zealand First - 5% (up 1%)
Te Pāti Māori - 3% (steady)
The Opportunities Party - 1% (steady)
New Conservative Party - 1% (up 1%)
Seats in the House
Assuming Rawiri Waititi retains Waiariki for Te Pāti Māori:
National – 49
Labour – 35
ACT – 13
Greens – 13
New Zealand First – 7
Te Pāti Māori – 3
See the full poll results and methodology here
Between September 9 and September 12 2023, 1002 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (502) and online, using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
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