Vote Compass: Kiwis want stronger punishment for youth offenders

Three-quarters of New Zealanders support more prison sentences and harsher penalties for young offenders, according to new data from Vote Compass.

The results show an overwhelming majority (73%) either strongly, or somewhat agree that too many offenders avoid prison sentences.

Only 12% of the 170,000 people sampled from Vote Compass respondents said they either somewhat, or strongly, disagreed with the rest either neutral or didn't know.

Auckland University's Danny Osborne says the data paints a clear picture.

"Crime is at the forefront of voters’ minds—New Zealanders are seeing the almost daily reports about crime and view it as a critical issue in this election," he says.

In some regions, like Auckland, crime ranked as the third highest election priority, behind the economy and cost of living.

Latest data from the Ministry of Justice to June 2023, showed more than 8500 prisoners across New Zealand's prison facilities. It's the lowest imprisonment rate per 100,000 people in over 20 years.

In part, that's due to Labour enacting a target of reducing the prison population by 30%. They've since scrapped that target for next term, if re-elected.

National would also abolish that target, while restricting the use of electronic bail, and imposing stronger sentences on criminals.

ACT's justice policy would shake up the sentencing act, bringing 17-year-old offenders back into the adult justice system, while New Zealand First have promised to build a facility dedicated to gang members.

Te Pāti Māori is proposing to abolish traditional prisons, replacing it with a tikanga-based justice system, while the Greens also favour "evidence-based rehabilitation", and restorative justice solutions.

In regions that have been hit particularly hard by an increase in crime in the past 18 months, like Waikato and Auckland, people were even more in agreement that more prison sentences needed to be handed down.

In Waikato, 79% of respondents agreed in some form that prison sentences weren't being dished out enough.

"It's no surprise to me," says Hamilton Mayor Paula Southgate.

"Police resourcing and an effective justice system are a must. So too is investment in local community groups and social agencies, and the role they play – particularly in supporting youth into better futures.

Southgate's urging the incoming Government to continue providing support and funding for local initiatives that she says "are proven and making a difference”.

Meanwhile, close to 1-in-5 Wellingtonians disagreed there were too many prison sentences being handed out, the lowest among any region.

Vote Compass paints a similar picture with regards to youth crime.

Seventy-six per cent of New Zealanders strongly, or somewhat, agreed that young offenders who commit serious offences should be subject to harsher punishments.

That number jumps to 92% among people who voted ACT or National at the 2020 election, while supporters of the Greens were most opposed.

Labour voters were close to the average, with 73% in some form of agreement, with 18% opposed and the rest saying they didn't know or were neutral on the question.

"Even the majority of supporters of the more progressive parties are feeling that we need to take as tough or a tougher stance on crime. That said, supporters of the more conservative parties are clearly more emphatic about handing out tougher sentences," says Osborne.

"Traditionally, conservative party supporters tend to take a more individualised/punitive approach towards crime and blame it on the individual, while liberal party supporters view crime as rooted in structural factors. As such, despite there being an apparent (near) consensus, I suspect we’d see very different responses in terms of how to best address crime."

By using Vote Compass, New Zealanders can find out which political parties they are with on the key issues facing the country

You can choose to agree or disagree with 30 statements about issues like health, education, the environment, and tax. Vote Compass will then analyse your answers with the policies of different parties and show you how similar they are to your own views.

Where do you sit? Find out here at: 1News.co.nz/VoteCompass

Lees-Marshment said the results from the tool also serve as a way to gauge the public's insights on hot topics, as they are tabulated by researchers every few days.

The academic said the results on key issues reported from Vote Compass would help "elevate" the voice of the public for how politicians and the media discussed the election.

Developed by a team of social and statistical scientists from Vox Pop Labs, Vote Compass is a civic engagement application offered in New Zealand exclusively by 1News/TVNZ.

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The findings are based on 170,220 respondents who participated in Vote Compass from September 7 to October 3, 2023.

Unlike online opinion polls, respondents to Vote Compass are not pre-selected. Similar to opinion polls, however, the data are a non-random sample from the population and have been weighted in order to approximate a representative sample. Vote Compass data have been weighted by gender, age, education, region, and partisanship to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of New Zealand according to census data and other population estimates.