Labour and the Greens have seen their support grow in the final week of the election campaign leaving New Zealand First potentially in a position to decide who forms the next government, the latest 1News Verian poll shows.
Political leaders have been ramming home the message for weeks — this election will be close. And according to tonight's poll, the result will be tighter than many had forecast.
Labour is up 2% from last week's poll to 28%, and National is up 1% on 37%.
The gap between the right and left blocs is narrowing, according to the last 1News Verian poll before the election. (Source: 1News)
The Green Party has hit 14% (up 1%), which would deliver it a record 17 MPs in the next parliament. ACT has slumped to 9% (down 1%), its lowest result in the 1News poll in more than a year. Te Pāti Māori is steady on 2%.
New Zealand First's 6% would place the party and its leader Winston Peters firmly in the kingmaker position between the left and right blocs.
To gain a majority of the House and form a government the magic number is 61.
Based on the new poll numbers, Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would have a total of 54 seats in the House, while National and ACT would have a total of 58. That means New Zealand First's eight seats could decide whether National leader Christopher Luxon becomes prime minister, or Labour leader Chris Hipkins continues in the role.
Peters ruled out working with Labour last year. Hipkins ruled out working with New Zealand First at the end of August. At the end of September, Christopher Luxon said if he had to work with New Zealand First in order to change the government, he would "make that call" to Peters.
Of the 1001 eligible voters polled, 9% didn't know or refused to answer, the lowest percentage this year.
The polling period was from Saturday, October 7 to Tuesday, October 10.
Neck and neck
The preferred prime minister stakes show Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins are evenly matched in the eyes of the public, with both on 25% each.
It follows last week's result which had Christopher Luxon just ahead for the first time in the 1News poll.
Just behind Luxon and Hipkins this week is Winston Peters on 5%, while his rival, ACT's David Seymour, remains a step behind on 4%.
Green candidate for Auckland Central Chlöe Swarbrick, along with her co-leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson, were all on 2%.
Party vote
National – 37% (up 1%)
Labour – 28% (up 2%)
Green – 14% (up 1%)
ACT – 9% (down 1%)
New Zealand First – 6% (steady)
The Opportunities Party (TOP) – 2% (steady)
Te Pāti Māori – 2% (steady)
New Zealand Loyal – 1% (steady)
Freedoms New Zealand – 1% (steady)
New Zeal – 1% (steady)
DemocracyNZ – 1% (up 1%)
Don't know or refused to answer – 9% (down 1%)
Seats in the House
(Calculation assumes Rawiri Waititi holds the Waiariki electorate.)
National – 47
Labour – 35
Green – 17
ACT – 11
New Zealand First – 8
Te Pāti Māori – 2
Preferred prime minister
Christopher Luxon – 25% (down 1%)
Chris Hipkins – 25% (steady)
Winston Peters – 5% (up 1%)
David Seymour – 4% (up 1%)
Chlöe Swarbrick – 2% (steady)
James Shaw – 2% (steady)
Marama Davidson – 2% (up 1%)
Jacinda Ardern – 1% (up 1%)
See the full poll results and methodology here
Between October 7 and October 10 2023, 1001 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (501) and online, using online panels (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
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