Analysis: A poor showing for Labour tomorrow night would do more than just remove them from power, writes Q+A presenter Jack Tame.
Is there time for a late surprise?
In politics, always.
No political pundit would likely forget Jim Anderton‘s prophetic words in the lead up to Christchurch’s 2010 mayoral election.
With polls indicating he was comfortably ahead of his incumbent opponent, Bob Parker, Anderton suggested to an interviewer it would take an earthquake or “seismic shift” to change the trajectory of the race.
The following day, Christchurch suffered the first of its major earthquakes. Parker thus became a prominent national figure and was comfortably re-elected to office.
If there is to be a late surprise for the general election tomorrow, we all hope it does not come in the form of a natural disaster.
Polling trends have suggested the likelier scenario is that National will lead the next government and Labour will head to the opposition benches.
One of things I’ll be watching most closely tomorrow night is the impact of the results on the size and composition of Labour’s caucus.
Is a mass exodus on the cards?
The huge decline in the party’s support between 2020 and now is likely to mean a slab of Labour MPs are booted from parliament.
From 64 MPs this term, this week’s 1News Verian poll suggests Labour would be reduced to 35.
It’s impossible to know from the party vote alone exactly who could be removed from parliament.
Numerous MPs with relatively low list rankings should win their electorate seats, guaranteeing them a place in the next caucus and squeezing out their higher-ranking colleagues.
Several candidates are standing in electorates only. And there’s also a possibility that in the weeks and months to come, if Labour finds itself in opposition some current MPs with high list rankings might choose to retire from parliament.
Labour’s future in sharp focus
The results have the potential to have a major impact on the future leadership of the party.
Current polling suggests some high profile and experienced younger MPs are at risk of being turfed.
Priyanca Radhakrishnan, Kieran McAnulty, Ginny Andersen and Jo Luxton are ranked at 15, 16, 17, and 19 on the party list respectively. All have been Ministers, but all face stern challenges in their electorates.
A poor showing for Labour combined with a loss in some electorates could result in a huge blow to the party’s future talent pool.
Experience is also at risk. Andrew Little and David Parker are standing as list-only candidates and if Labour were to have an especially poor showing, both could see their time in parliament come to an end.
A really bad night for Labour wouldn’t just remove them from power - it would seriously impact the party’s capacity to rebuild during the next term.
Potential future leaders and some of its most experienced MPs could be removed from parliament.
There will be many keeping a close eye on the results as they come through tomorrow. Barring a pleasant surprise for Chris Hipkins, much of Labour’s current caucus faces an anxious night with the party list in hand.
The 1News Your Vote 23 Election Night Special will air from 7pm on TVNZ 1, TVNZ+, 1news.co.nz and across 1News social channels. 1news.co.nz will also have live election results throughout the night, allowing viewers to track the national picture and the outcome in their electorate as it happens.
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