An economist who specialises in urban planning and land use says the development of housing in big cities like Auckland under the incoming National-led Government won't be much different than under Labour.
"This doesn't make me popular when I say these things, but it [National's housing plan] is 80% the same plan as Labour's," said transport consultancy MRCagney's principal economist Shane Martin.
As part of the election campaign, National pledged to make the Medium Density Residential Standards (MDRS) optional for local councils.
MDRS allows people to build up to three homes, up to three storeys, on most sites without the need for resource consent. These rules were jointly announced by Labour and National in October 2021. National backed out of the bipartisan deal in May.
National, however, continued to support the National Policy Statement on Urban Development (NPS-UD) which requires councils to zone for housing density along rapid transit stops.
Martin told Q+A that the results of this could already be seen in Auckland, where many parts of the city had seen single detached houses replaced by townhouses as part of the Auckland Unitary Plan and subsequent ongoing updates to that plan.
Martin - who moved from the US to work as an economist for Auckland Council in 2017 - said when he first moved to the city, people were talking about having up to 70% of new development happen in brownfields. Brownfields are places where the land has already been developed and has existing infrastructure.
Meanwhile, up to 40% of new development was planned in greenfields - land that has not been built on before or has been used for things like farming, he said.
In reality, it's been more of an 80-20 split between brownfields and greenfields development since then - and that's even the case with large parts of suburbs closest to Auckland CBD excluded from further intensification to protect their "character", Martin said.
National's election policy also proposed a $1 billion fund that rewards councils that deliver more housing. The party is also requiring councils in major towns and cities to zone land for 30 years' worth of housing demand immediately.
Martin said in many places, like Auckland and lower-growth towns, that level of demand has already been zoned for.
"We could zone the entire North and South Island for 'mixed-housing urban' and we'll have 10,000 years' supply of developable land. But that doesn't actually accomplish anything.
"You can zone whatever you want, but if it's not in the right places and in places people want to be, then it won't do anything. Getting it in the right places in the key."
He said there wasn't a lot of guidance in National's plans about where those "right places" are apart from some requirements for further intensification around rapid transit routes.
Martin said, for most places, concentrating it around rapid transit would be enough. However, he said it wouldn't be for places like Auckland and Wellington.
People were increasingly trading the quarter-acre dream for a smaller house with better accessibility to the city centre, where many jobs are located, he said.
But, for some, Martin said there seemed to be an entrenched view of what housing is meant to be - detached, with a big backyard.
"There's a lot of trying to retain that at all costs, almost."
There was also a desire to retain the villa look in other places, he said.
Martin said the difficulty with that is most cities grow from the centre outward, meaning the oldest suburbs with the character houses would be in the best spots for accessing jobs.
"You really can't do a lot there because of the special character overlays which are aimed at maintaining the classic villas that everyone likes to see. But there are, at last count, something like 20,000 of these dwellings in these special character areas. That really takes out a lot of places lots of people want to be," Martin said.
"This is not me advocating for 'let's get rid of all heritage and all special character'. But there's a tradeoff involved here.
"Maintaining that means people have to locate further away. It makes prices higher and makes it so only the very wealthy can live near the city."
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