Analysis: Why Barrett probably isn't a threat to McKenzie at 10 this year

Analysis: Incoming All Blacks head coach Scott Robertson is likely to back McKenzie at first-five rather than the returning Barrett, writes Patrick McKendry.

Beauden Barrett’s recently announced return to New Zealand next year after his season with Japanese club Toyota has suddenly provided Damian McKenzie with a serious rival for the All Blacks No10 jersey. Or has it?

Given Richie Mo’unga’s move – apparently fulltime - to Japan, and McKenzie’s time at first-five for the All Blacks in 2023, including during the World Cup, the little Chiefs player could be considered the new incumbent and it’s difficult to see new head coach Scott Robertson thinking otherwise.

After successfully thwarting Blues first-five (and occasional fullback) Barrett in Super Rugby while leading the Crusaders over the past seven years, Robertson is unlikely to want to rush back to a player who hasn’t started at No.10 for the All Blacks since their victory over Scotland at Murrayfield in November, 2022.

Barrett, 32, won’t play for the Blues this year due to his Japanese sabbatical, and while he will likely have designs on the black No.10 jersey, Robertson will probably prefer McKenzie there for the first Test against England in July due to, if nothing else, the fact the 28-year-old would have played a full season (fitness permitting) in closer proximity.

Another point to consider is that Barrett, a double world player of the year award winner, hasn’t been the same since the British and Irish Lions tour of 2017 when he initially dazzled but was then bamboozled by a rush defence employed by the tourists that has since become de rigueur – even in Super Rugby.

The Crusaders quickly figured out that Barrett doesn’t like his time and space taken away (although few first-fives do), but they were never able to shut down McKenzie in quite the same way, including as recently as last season’s Super Rugby Pacific final in Hamilton.

In that match last June, the competition front-runners fought back from a halftime deficit to lead the Crusaders 20-15 with 30 minutes to play before Sam Cane’s yellow card in the final 10 minutes and Codie Taylor’s converted try soon after changed the complexion of the match. McKenzie had what would have been a decisive try ruled out in the second half due to a technicality over where he stood at a lineout.

So dominant were the Chiefs at one point that Robertson was thinking about his speech as a losing coach. Instead, he celebrated his seventh consecutive title by spinning on his back in the middle of Waikato Stadium.

McKenzie also possesses an attacking spirit closer to Richie Mo’unga’s than Barrett’s and although Robertson is aware McKenzie can take on too much, he will likely back himself and his assistants to curb those worst excesses and turn him into a quality Test first-five.

As an aside, one wonders about the development of Mo’unga, consistently Super Rugby’s MVP, had Robertson and Scott Hansen coached him rather than Foster and company. It took both Sir Steve Hansen and Foster years to work out Mo'unga was the best playmaking option over Barrett and even when he was finally backed the synergy between Mo'unga and Barrett at fullback took a long time to click.

Another aside: one of Robertson's assistants is Leon MacDonald, the former Blues coach who not surprisingly backed Barrett to the hilt at No.10. The selection meetings may be about to get more interesting.

Where to, then, for Barrett, who presumably would not have re-committed to New Zealand Rugby until 2027 without some assurances about his place in a match-day pecking order?

It depends of course about whether Robertson wants to play Crusaders fullback Will Jordan at fullback rather than on the right wing where Jordan played the vast majority of his Tests under Foster.

It’s possible that Barrett could get some occasional Tests at first-five and fullback, but the reality is a bench role may eventually be his lot – not that that should be disparaging because it's where he made his name before the 2015 World Cup – a period of dominance for the All Blacks and outstanding form for him personally.

The other big question is who Robertson will choose as his captain and it’s difficult to see him going past Scott Barrett here, rather than re-appointing Sam Cane.

Indeed, Robertson would likely have chosen the now retired Sam Whitelock ahead of Cane had he been given the opportunity because of his body of work alongside the veteran lock at the Crusaders and the outspoken belief that Whitelock is a winner in everything he does.

Likewise, another Crusader, Ethan Blackadder, could be given far more opportunities under Robertson than he received under Foster.

The big loose forward’s chances have been limited by injuries – he’s had a horror run of shoulder and leg problems over the last couple of years – but would likely have been a little disappointed with his lot at the World Cup.

Called in as an injury replacement for wing Emoni Narawa, who didn’t play a game, Blackadder set about knocking his teammates into shape during some robust training sessions but was given only 27 minutes off the bench against Uruguay.

Hindsight is helpful of course but the ultra-physical Blackadder might have been a good fit for a bench role in the final against South Africa rather than Dalton Papali’i, a player fairly similar to Cane.

Boks flanker Pieter-Steph du Toit showed the value of having a loose forward who carries with him a little fear factor – his defence against midfielder Jordie Barrett in particular was both outstanding and wince-inducing – and Blackadder is capable of similar.

Another Crusaders loose forward, Tom Christie, a tackling machine who faced a locked door at All Blacks level under Foster, is likely to find it far easier to open under Robertson.

Elsewhere, starting in the backs, Narawa is likely to be given more opportunities in 2024, with the midfield of Jordie Barrett and Rieko Ioane looking increasingly dangerous given the strides Barrett made this year.

Mark Telea is irresistible on the left wing, and so too, for me at least, is Cam Roigard at halfback. It’s hard to know why Roigard seemed to lose his shine to the selectors in the latter stages of the World Cup but he appears the man with the biggest future in the No.9 jersey.

A potential front row of Ethan de Groot, Codie Taylor and Tyrel Lomax is an intimidating one, as is the firepower the All Blacks can bring off the bench in the form of Samisoni Taukei’aho, Tamaiti Williams and Fletcher Newell.

Tupou Vai’i is the favourite to partner Barrett in the second row, with Josh Lord on the bench.

Ardie Savea has to be on the field from the start, but at No.8 or openside flanker? The world player of the year would be the best in either position in the world – it depends on what balance Robertson is looking for and whether he will keep faith with Cane, who was outstanding against Ireland in the World Cup quarter-final.

Anton Lienert-Brown was another who played well against Ireland – in his case off the bench where he was outstanding defensively.

A new era is coming. The All Blacks have lost a wealth of talent and experience in the form of Whitelock, Dane Coles, Brodie Retallick, Aaron Smith, Shannon Frizell (in Japan for two years) and Mo’unga, but Robertson still has plenty of ability to select, as evidenced below.

15. Will Jordan, 14. Emoni Narawa, 13. Rieko Ioane, 12. Jordie Barrett, 11. Mark Tele’a, 10. Damian McKenzie, 9. Cam Roigard, 8. Ardie Savea, 7. Sam Cane, 6. Ethan Blackadder, 5. Scott Barrett ©, 4. Tupou Vai’i, 3. Tyrel Lomax, 2. Codie Taylor, 1. Ethan de Groot.

Possible reserves: 16. Samisoni Taukei'aho, 17. Tamaiti Williams, 18. Fletcher Newell, 19. Josh Lord, 20. Dalton Papali'i, 21. Finlay Christie, 22. Anton Lienert-Brown, 23. Beauden Barrett.