New Zealand's possible entry into AUKUS Pillar Two risks being "provocative" without providing significant deterrence benefits. an Australian strategy expert says.
Australian National University Emeritus Professor Hugh White, who is in New Zealand at the invitation of Helen Clark and Don Brash, spoke to Q+A this morning.
Foreign Minister Winston Peters says no decisions have been made by the Government about joining Pillar Two of AUKUS, which involves technology sharing and development, nor has New Zealand yet been invited by the Pillar One partners to join.
However, White argues that – while AUKUS is not in and of itself a formal alliance – the agreement is about “expressing Australia’s commitment to supporting Washington’s vision of its future role in Asia, and its future relationship with China”.
On Pillar Two, White said “it’s hard to escape the fact that the focus of that technology sharing and development is definitely military", noting the technology is about “building deterrence” in the region.
The Foreign Minister spoke to 1News' Political Editor Maiki Sherman about the technology sharing agreement. (Source: 1News)
He said the US' approach represents a desire to maintain their position as the leading power within Asia, and to be willing to threaten war with China, if they are challenged.
“I happen to think America is getting this wrong, and this is a very important question,” said White. “One of the reasons it’s dangerous … deterrence is all about threatening to go to war. The problem with that is your bluff might be called.”
White said the US is not currently doing enough in concrete terms to convince China that it is serious about that prospect, and is therefore being “provocative without being deterring, and that’s a very dangerous position to get yourself in”.
When asked this week about joining Pillar Two by 1News political editor Maiki Sherman, Peters said the country is "too far away from any such decision or discussion".
But he said the public would be kept informed and consulted on for feedback through a submissions process. "Here's the most critical point – we would first of all be talking to the public about that," he said.
When asked if he accepted there was a strategy by the US and its allies to contain China, Peters said the questions should be put to the countries involved.
"If you're asking me about our heightened awareness of geostrategic changes and stresses and strains – yes we are, but our job is to be wide awake and well aware and, at the same time, doing our best to be a peaceful influence in our part of the world."
Peters pointed to the increasing presence of China in the Pacific as an example of geostrategic changes. The Blue Pacific Continent, as it’s known, covered almost one-quarter of the world's surface and was therefore a crucial strategic region.
"Well, if you leave a void in certain parts of the Pacific then other countries are going to fill it," Peters said.
"Many of the countries who speak for democracy, the rule of law, freedom, and – above all – the right to worship the God of your choice. They have often dropped the ball, so to speak, or been too slow to move.
"That's not something that New Zealand wants to be regarded as guilty of."
Q+A with Jack Tame is made with the support of New Zealand On Air
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