After surviving a decade of civil war, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's grip on power unexpectedly dissolved last December, forcing him into a precarious Russian exile that an expert warns may not last.
Assad himself has been almost completely silent during his time in exile, with a Russian official reportedly saying that the ex-president's exile was conditional on “his complete abstention from any media and political activity.”
But political scientist Marcel Dirsus, the author of How Tyrants Fall, told Q+A that Assad’s future is dependent on the whims of a powerful patron.
“The problem for leaders like Assad is that they don’t really have any good options, so they have to choose the least bad option,” said Dirsus.
“If you think about it, he [Assad] got that promise from [Russian president] Vladimir Putin, who is getting older. There’s no telling that when Putin eventually dies or gets deposed, that will happen, that Assad will be able to continue to live in Moscow.”
Syria’s new government is in a significantly stronger position as of this week, with Saudi Arabia and Qatar paying off the country’s foreign debt to the World Bank, making the nation eligible for new loans.
US president Donald Trump also announced he will lift all sanctions on Syria, which will assist the country's reintegration into the global financial system.
The new Syrian president is Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohommed al-Julani. The leader had previously led an organisation designated by the US government as a terrorist organisation.
Dirsus noted that with a new Syrian government in power, Putin may choose to offer concessions to gain influence.
“What happens if Putin decides he cares more about his relationship to the new rulers in Syria, than he does about this man who doesn’t really owe him any chips any more?”
“He could be given up at any moment, and he is hated. I mean he’s responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, and those enemies didn’t just evaporate into thin air the moment that he fled, so he will always be at risk,” said Dirsus.
Bashir al-Assad is currently 59 years of age, and was in office from 2000 to 2024, having inherited the job from his father Hafez al-Assad.
Dr Dirsus has been in New Zealand to speak at the Auckland Writer’s Festival.
The book How Tyrants Fall notes several other examples of tyrants who seek exile in a friendly country, only for the political winds to change and their hosting government deciding to send them back.
It also noted statistics that show the majority of dictators have bad ends, whether that is from being deposed by the inner circle or by popular uprisings, being assassinated, or being forced into exile.
Watch the full interview in the video above
Q+A with Jack Tame is made with the support of New Zealand On Air
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