1News rugby writers Patrick McKendry and Scotty Stevenson delve into Razor's conundrum and other talking points ahead of the Rugby Championship.
PM: Scotty, the Rugby Championship starts on Sunday with South Africa taking on the Wallabies in Johannesburg and the All Blacks playing Argentina in Cordoba.
Let’s start with a general view of this year’s competition. I can safely say it’s going to be the closest in a while – thanks in part to the Wallabies’ rebuild under Joe Schmidt – can’t I?
SS: I hope you are right, Pat. I am still trying to figure out whether the Wallabies are a vastly improved side or whether the British and Irish Lions weren’t quite as good as advertised. Regardless, Australia has an incredibly tough start in Johannesburg against Rassie’s disciples. As an aside, there is a real Monty Python’s Life of Brian vibe about the Springbok gaffer’s Messianic status. I note the bloke is being freshly hailed as a genius, this time for simply changing the jersey number on Siya Kolisi’s back.
The Springboks will be overwhelming favourites to account for the Wallabies in the opening round, and on balance they deserve to be. Australia’s big men, hailed as difference makers in the Lions series, will be sorely tested at altitude. If their influence can be negated, I fear it could be a blow out.
The All Blacks also have a tough gig first up. This Argentine side will relish the chance to play the All Blacks at a Cordoba venue none of the visitors have experienced. One thing in the All Blacks' favour is the crowd will be some distance from the action with a running track separating the field from the fans.
I am surprised that players such as Emilino Boffelli and Thomas Gallo have not been selected, but there is a lot of talent and flair in the backline. They'll come out swinging, and the All Blacks will have to subdue the early onslaught before imposing themselves on the game. I think it could be closer than many predict, which wouldn't be a bad thing for the competition.
You sound bullish on the Wallabies, Pat. Do you really believe they have what it takes to assert themselves in this year's championship?
PM: I do. They impressed me in the last two Tests against the Lions. There’s no doubt that big Will Skelton changed their dynamic up front with his power and hard-nosed attitude for those matches after being unavailable for the Brisbane Test.
The Wallabies will feed off that, but you may be right about the altitude factor at Ellis Park.
However, some of their backs have been pretty good, too – fullback Tom Wright, centre Joseph Suaali’i and wing Max Jorgensen are elite players. They will ask some serious questions of a Boks team who have warmed up for this Test with two games against Italy and one against Georgia.
You stated the Pumas will be tough to beat for the All Blacks and I agree.
They will be very hard to break down and the Test will quickly put a focus on where Razor’s assignment to up the power and explosiveness of his forward ball carriers sits.
Let’s get straight into what is probably the head coach’s biggest selection dilemma this week: with Wallace Sititi still out with an ankle issue, who starts at No.8?
SS: That’s a great question. Here’s the conundrum: most fans will want to see Ardie Savea retain his place on the openside but the mix of the loose forwards on this tour makes the selection for this first Test intriguing. I would suggest he moves back to No.8, making room for Du'Plessis Kirifi or Peter Lakai in the seven jersey and Simon Parker off the bench.
If Parker had been with the initial traveling group I would be more inclined to think he slotted straight into the role of starting No.8 with Savea in seven, but I wonder whether they will be prepared to go all-in on a debutant with less than a week to get to grips with the attack system from the boot of the scrum, and I think this will be a scrum-heavy contest.
Far be it from me to hazard a guess at the final makeup of the trio, but if I factor in selection history, short preparation and the need to move bodies and win ball, I would go with a Vaa’i, Kirifi, Savea 6-7-8.
I would love your thoughts here. Also, I spoke to assistant coach Jason Ryan about the halfback selection today. He says it won't really matter if the pack is going forward, but which way do they lean here? Cortez Ratima to start with Fin Christie back in the mix? Or a more radical plan?
PM: I hear you with regards to starting Vaa’i at 6, Savea at 8 and Kirifi at 7 – and that’s close to the formula that Razor came up with in Hamilton after Luke Jacobson’s injury in the warm-up against France (Samipeni Finau was at 6).
But since we’re in the business of second-guessing here, I would suggest Razor will go for Vaa’i at 6, Savea at 8 and Lakai at 7.
I think Kirifi has greater value off the bench as an impact player.
I agree with you about Parker being short of preparation time and that may count against him this week.
Now that Christian Lio-Willie is missing and Jacobson is injured, Savea and Parker are the only specialist No.8s in Argentina.
For Savea, the jersey number won’t matter much but there is something about seeing him wearing that black No.7 jersey because of all it represents — I concur.
As for the halfback decision, I would be stunned if they don’t name Cortez Ratima to start in the wake of the injuries to Cam Roigard and Noah Hotham.
The back-up? I’m going to be radical here since you foreshadowed it.
Now is the time to experiment with a 6-2 forwards-backs split on the bench ahead of those two mammoth Tests against the Boks next month and I would name Damian McKenzie and Anton Lienert-Brown as the only backs cover.
One of Razor’s other major assignments is ensuring all his backs can play multiple positions and I believe this could be the end goal. McKenzie can do a job at halfback, 10 and fullback, with ALB covering the midfield. Rieko Ioane, Beauden Barrett and Jordie Barrett will probably wear the the No. 11, 10 and 12 jerseys respectively and can all play in the outside backs.
Thoughts?
SS: This is a very radical call from you, Mr McKendry, and I am here for it. I do understand the rationale in terms of preparation for the Springboks, but I'm probably in the minority in my thoughts on the way to negate the 'bomb squad'.
I don't think a 6-2 bench is the best strategy for the All Blacks, it doesn't play to the DNA of New Zealand's rugby athletes, and I think it plays to the strengths of the South Africans. There is nothing they like more than removing a genuine tactical attacking threat from the game, knowing they can always find a bigger body to stack their bench with.
Furthermore, the All Blacks have to deal with this week and the next before getting too focused on the Boks.
I understand the mix you have gone for, but how good would it be to see a guy like Leroy Carter get a crack off the bench? If the All Blacks are to remain wedded to utility, he can cover a few bases, too. It would be some departure from the norm to see them go all in with one halfback but I concede I would be interested to see how that strategy played out.
Selections aside, what of the All Blacks game plan in general? I suspect we'll see a fair amount of kicking in this Test and with no Roigard, much of that will be from the boot of Beauden Barrett. How do you see that unfolding?
PM: Yes, probably bombs away (kicks, not squad perhaps) in Cordoba, but a final thought on stacking six forwards on the bench: it would allow Razor to select three front rowers and a lock as usual, but also two loose forwards such as Parker or Finau and Kirifi – two power guys and a true fetcher. I like that idea against the Boks or any team and I also very much like the idea of Carter playing a role as a true ‘hybrid’ player. We’ll see.
Apart from kicking for territory as usual, I don’t think there will be a prescribed kicking plan for Barrett. I think we will more likely see a variety in his kicking game, and he and the rest of the team will be given carte blanche to play what they see as usual.
They attempted a “fast” game against France, with mixed results at times as they attempted to wear out the opposition. A better strategy might be “fast” thinking – in other words, ever alert to opportunities, and I think they will be.
They will attempt to put the squeeze on the Pumas' scrum and lineout. Argentina pride themselves on their scrum but it hasn’t been a force for several years, and new All Blacks’ lineout coach Bryn Evans made an immediate impact when starting last month.
From there they will attempt to create scoreboard pressure – something they couldn’t quite manage in Dunedin last month (although three tries were disallowed by the officials) or Hamilton until the final quarter.
Let’s look at the health of the All Blacks’ squad before we sign off: There is depth building at lock now that Sam Darry has returned in such good form to the NPC and Jamie Hannah and Zach Gallagher, his second-row teammates at Canterbury, look very promising too.
Leicester Fainga’anuku will presumably return if and when Razor can squeeze him in, which will reinforce the midfield (probably at the expense of Timoci Tavatavanawai) and wings, but… would you say the All Blacks’ wing stocks are the thinnest area of the squad at the moment?
SS: That’s an interesting question. I think there is an awful lot of wing talent in this country but finding a combination that sells itself as the number one has proven difficult in recent years. If you think back to 2015, Julian Savea and Nehe Milner-Skudder were impeccable In terms of complementary skills. One with chase ability and evasion, the other with brute strength and straight line speed.
How many combinations have been tried since? Very few have delivered the same alchemical dynamic. Will Jordan and Caleb Clarke probably came closest to it when they strung together six straight Tests together in 2022, and Sevu Reece and a combination of Clarke and Mark Tele'a were also a facsimile last season.
The issue is not depth at wing, it's opportunity. Since that Rugby World Cup in 2015, the All Blacks have only carried a 'specialist' wing reserve in the match day 23 in 48 of their 115 T,ests. In 2017, they used a wing replacement in the squad just once in 16 Tests. In 2022, it was four times in 13 Tests. Last year, it was five times in 14 Tests.
The message is pretty simple. If you want the best chance of being selected for a Test, don't be just a wing. New Zealand has plenty of options if that's what the selectors are looking for, but some basic maths would tell us it's not.
Pick the results please, Pat.
PM: South Africa and All Blacks to win close ones.
You?
SS: South Africa by a bit more, All Blacks by 12.
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