Analysis: 1News Pacific Correspondent Barbara Dreaver says the backdrop of the superpower's role in the Pacific should focus the minds of the region's ministers meeting in Fiji today.
As Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) foreign ministers, including Winston Peters, gather in Suva today they are walking into a geopolitical storm.
What unites the 18 member countries is the Pacific Ocean and various, mostly cultural links, between them but it’s what’s separating them - differing needs, differing economic positions and differing allegiances - that is taking centre stage.
Gathering hungrily around those member countries are the 21 dialogue partners like China, the United States and the EU all vying for influence.
They want a slice of maritime resources, strategic military positioning and support. There’s nothing wrong with that, but the issue becomes a problem when that influence impacts on PIF and its regional decision making.
We’ve seen it in action over the past week when the PIF host country Solomon Islands announced that Taiwan, which has been a development partner since 1992, would not be allowed to the leaders' meeting next month.
While Taiwan’s status at PIF is less than China, their very presence at the regional meeting drives Beijing into a rage. In fact last year in Tonga we saw a messy scene when Taiwan was recognised in the communiqué and China’s special envoy for the Pacific Qian Bo successfully called for it to be taken out.
China has been at it again this year and, because of the blatant level of Beijing’s political influence in the Solomon Islands, Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele announced Taiwan couldn’t come.
That's a bold decision to make given PIF does not belong to the Solomon Islands and it has no right to make this call on behalf of the other 17 member countries. In fact some of those member countries put up a fuss and suggested they might leave the regional organisation if Taiwan was banned.
Faced with the fragmentation of PIF, the Solomon Islands made a less than ideal decision - but the only viable one - and that was to ban all dialogue partners, including China.
Of course we have yet to see how many of those dialogue partners might coincidentally happen to have “unrelated meetings” in Honiara at the same time PIF is on. But at least it’s created a level playing field.
If Taiwan had been the only country not let in because China didn’t want it there, that would have shown the world how weak and open to influence PIF has become.
This fractured organisation weighed down with bureaucracy has done little to prevent this happening.
PIF is meant to be getting an overhaul, what they call the 'architecture' is currently being worked on to strengthen it against outside influences. But the public has no idea when this is going to actually happen.
There is so much at stake with conflicts around the world, including impending ones, and the Pacific is a prime and sought after location for superpowers to access. China is currently in first place.
What can stop this is PIF unity - having a global voice - but unfortunately some member countries are already flying flags other than their own. The shakiness of PIF is being exposed and it’s an ugly look.
Chance for Pacific to regain unity
The absence of all dialogue partners at PIF, the absence of noise, is a good opportunity for the Pacific to get back this unity. It’s why this foreign ministers meeting in Suva today is so important - because it is this meeting which will help lay the groundwork for the leaders' meeting in a few weeks' time.
New Zealand is worried and it should be. It’s a little too close to home when our own realm country the Cook Islands ignores its constitutional arrangement with Wellington and signs a number of agreements with China.
Some elements of that have the potential to be a security risk. Independent countries can do what they like but the Cook Islands is not that - carrying the NZ passport is a privilege and quite rightly comes with obligations.
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has suspended aid there and we should expect to see stronger action from New Zealand should this political fallout not be resolved. It will be the Cook Islands people who lose out.
And so we come back to PIF. The leaders gathered around that table would do well to remember they don’t represent themselves – they are employees of the people, so behave like it.
The battle for influence is well underway, everyone hopes it won't develop into a war.
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