Analysis: Scotty Stevenson and Patrick McKendry break down the big issues ahead of a monumental Test at Eden Park.
PM: Scotty, as we look ahead to the visit of the Boks at the All Blacks’ fortress Eden Park, how do you think Razor and company will be preparing their team for the mental side of defending a remarkable record, if "defending" is the right word?
SS: I think "protecting" may be the better term, but the All Blacks do consider this their spiritual home so that will have played into the week’s emotional chaos for sure. I hope they don’t dwell on the streak. This team has enough demons. Inviting in a few more won’t do anything for their mental state.
One thing is clear: the All Blacks love playing at Eden Park, and this team needs to embrace that, rather than be spooked by it. The streak is going to end someday but to be honest I think those numbers are more for the fans and the pundits than the players. We have always been told that the team expects to win every game, so this should just be another day at the office, albeit a particularly challenging one.
But there is genuine anticipation for this match, which is great for the health of Test rugby. I can’t remember a more anticipated game since the final Lions test, and we know how that ended… I certainly haven’t felt this kind of nervous energy in New Zealand ahead on an All Blacks home Test for a long time.
What about you?
PM: As far as a Test at Eden Park goes, I think you’re right to bring up that decider against the British and Irish Lions in 2017. There hasn’t been a bigger one since. Away from home there was a highly-anticipated World Cup quarter-final against Ireland in Paris during which the All Blacks played with an enormous amount of skill and courage before falling a couple of hurdles later against you know who.
This Test was always going to be special. The Boks haven’t played at Eden Park since 2013 and haven’t won there since 1937. The All Blacks are coming off a loss to Argentina, the Boks have just bounced back from losing to the Wallabies at their high citadel Ellis Park.
Winning would extend the All Blacks’ remarkable streak at their fortress, snap a four-match run of losses to the Boks, and allow them to take a step closer to winning the Rugby Championship.
Without dwelling too much on the place, I’d like to ask one more question: There is no doubt the Eden Park crowd can buoy its team, but it can also go awfully quiet when things aren’t going the All Blacks’ way.
I would venture to suggest the All Blacks need to start well to blow away the spectre of the unfolding horror of the 2011 World Cup final. I dare say you remember that all too well. The crowd got awfully quiet too as recently as July last year when England threatened to run away with it before Beauden Barrett’s cameo off the bench.
I’m pretty much answering my own question here, but how important is a good start from the home team? And what about that aura of negativity the Eden Park crowd can sometimes possess?
SS: The All Blacks have a highly expectant fan base, and you are right: when things don’t go the way they want them to the mood can become very negative. I think the All Blacks will need that fast start to allow that crowd to breathe a little and – maybe this is asking too much – actually enjoy the contest.
Everyone knows there is a record on the line, and I get the sense more than a few among the 50,000 will be expecting to tell tales to their grandkids of being there to witness the day it ended.
Kiwis love a bit of trauma tourism. I would hope those in attendance realise how lucky they are to be there to witness the two best teams in the world, but it feels like this is zero-sum territory for Scott Robertson and his team. A close loss will not be good enough when there is so much at stake for the fans.
Assuaging that crowd anxiety is going to take composure, which has deserted this team far too often in recent seasons. The Springboks will be well aware of the need to take the crowd out of the picture and so will look to dominate the early contact points.
I think it's safe to say they will also be ready to unleash one hell of an aerial bombardment, though I do recall the 2019 World Cup final during which they sucked England into thinking that way before unleashing a more ball-in-hand expansive game.
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Regardless, the back three for New Zealand will have to be markedly better this weekend. To that end, does Robertson roll the dice on changes, or does he back his men once more?
PM: I get the feeling Razor will keep backline changes to a minimum. To an extent he showed his hand early this week when ruling out Caleb Clarke (who will play for Auckland this weekend), saying he feels the wing hasn’t played enough rugby. Rieko Ioane will play – either on the left wing or at centre. I’m confident too that Will Jordan will start at fullback. Right wing? Probably Sevu Reece, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Emoni Narawa there, either.
One gets the sense the head coach feels his backline aren’t that far from clicking, or, at least that making too many forced changes in the midst of all the injuries at halfback will make finding that cohesion more difficult.
One man who could make a dramatic entrance is the recalled Leicester Fainga’anuku - in as an injury replacement for Timoci Tavatavanawai - and who is a possibility to start at centre, left wing, or, more likely on the bench.
There were some headlines this week claiming Fainga’anuku, back at Tasman and therefore eligible after a couple of seasons in France, was a “shock recall”, but I feel it would have been more surprising had he not been brought in given his experience, quality and potential impact value.
What are your thoughts here on the big man? Do you feel he will get an opportunity? Can you see other changes this week?
SS: I tend to agree with you. The die has been cast in terms of selection and the halfback issue is a major headache with no quick fix. The last thing they need to do now is swap out too many pieces. As for Fainga’anuku’s selection, the element of surprise stems from the fact that a month ago New Zealand Rugby were unequivocal in its stance that he would be unavailable for the All Blacks for the Rugby Championship Tests, so his inclusion as injury cover makes a mockery of their own eligibility rules (and also must have Richie Mo’unga smiling).
To me they need more certainty on the left wing for both kick receipts and kick chase. It’s not an optional extra in that spot, it’s a KPI. If Jordan has to cover two thirds of the back field, his effectiveness on attack will be severely curtailed, and he is an attacking weapon for the All Blacks on strike and second-phase play.
Back to that halfback issue, I don’t think Rassie Erasmus could have trolled the All Blacks any better than by calling in Faf de Klerk. I see your halfback issue, New Zealand, and raise you a double World Cup winner who was last seen playing *checks notes* Japan League One for Canon. You have to applaud the chutzpah of the man.
One issue the All Blacks had against Argentina in Buenos Aires was getting their hands on the ball at the breakdown.
Do you think there is any temptation to go back to a double fetcher plan with Du'plessis Kirifi and Ardie Savea both starting?
PM: Gee, that would be a gamble in my opinion because in that case you’re sacrificing height and bulk against one of the most direct and physical teams in the world.
One would have to assume that Razor will go with Tupou Vaa’i at 6, Ardie Savea at 7 (for his 100th Test by the way), and Wallace Sititi at 8.
I agree they were poor at the breakdown in B.A. but they will be better there with an improved attitude and forward momentum, which I think they will find easier with big men in the pack.
Speaking of big men, Tamaiti Williams will likely start at loosehead prop, with Tyrel Lomax a good chance to start at tighthead.
Suddenly, the All Blacks’ pack is approaching full strength and I’m sure that will make a difference to their overall performance.
I like Kirifi but I think he could be better value off the bench as the All Blacks seek to continue their high-tempo plan and attempt to run the big Bokke off their feet – a bit like the Wallabies did at Ellis Park.
Thoughts?
SS: Yes - I thought it was worth throwing out there as an option but I’m of the same opinion as you when it comes to matching up with size and height. In saying that, New Zealand has often had success with speed over size. South Africa are likely to always have bigger, taller men than most and while it is crucial to match up, it is also important to bring something different to the fight.
You are bang on when it comes to running the Bokke ragged. Up tempo, high offload rugby is what this team is seeking and while it didn’t click last time, I think it was execution not the plan that was to blame. It’s a hard art to master but if they truly believe in what they are doing, they’ll have to double down.
I would like to see more running from 10. Beauden Barrett is still one of the best attackers in the game but he seems to have pocketed the running game over the last couple of Tests, preferring to let others open the front door while he looks for a way around the back.
His kicking game in general play will tell an early story of how the All Blacks will approach the game tactically, but it’s his ball in hand skills that I am desperate to see on full show.
As for the Boks, Pat, do you think they will go for a de Klerk-Pollard axis in the halves?
PM: Probably, yes. While Rassie’s crew have the ability to win by throwing the ball around, as you say, it didn’t work for them in Johannesburg recently. I think they will attempt to kick the synthetic material off the ball on Saturday night.
In terms of box kickers and kickers in general, there are few better than Faf de Klerk and Handre Pollard so they’ll likely start.
Which brings me to this: Who wins and why?
SS: Like you Pat, I have enormous respect for the Springboks, and they will have used that Ellis Park defeat as firm evidence that no record lasts forever. Remember, Australia hadn’t won there in 63 years! They’ll be thinking, why can’t we be that team to end the All Blacks' Eden Park stand?
In saying that, I still believe this New Zealand team has what it takes to get the job done. If they find that fluency, they will find space, and they will score points. Their discipline will be better, too, and I think at its best their scrum and lineout are world-leading.
I’m expecting them to rise to the occasion and win the match, but there will be fingernails harmed in the process.
You?
PM: Good points about the All Blacks’ set piece, which is world class and will need to be again on Saturday.
And I agree, I think we’ll see a response against a good – but potentially not a great – team. All Blacks by 10+.
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