Tupou Vaa’i’s presence in a big All Blacks pack is all well and good but the evidence of the first two Tests of Dave Rennie’s reign suggests the home side’s forwards will have to lift considerably to counter the danger presented by Ireland at Eden Park.
It would be wrong to say the forwards have been underwhelming because they have played a considerable part in getting their team over the line against France and Italy.
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They have also had to contend with a sweeping new attacking system which puts pressure on the opposition defence but also their own fitness, handling and decision-making.
The bottom line though is that they have not dominated either opposition, and, more pertinently given how Rennie wants them to play tomorrow night, they have not dominated the set piece.
Italy, ranked No.10 in the world, have a good scrum but they had the advantage over the All Blacks in that area in Wellington.
The All Blacks could not shift them and the visitors even celebrated a couple of penalties after twisting and turning the home side into knots.
Rennie later proclaimed himself satisfied by his team’s scrum performance and suggested the interpretations of French referee Luc Ramos may not have been universally agreed upon.
Privately, the coaching group will be hopeful that Australian ref Nic Berry will interpret the All Blacks’ scrum differently at Eden Park but in general it is difficult to remember the last time New Zealand deliberately scrummaged for a penalty and were awarded one.
Vaa’i will have a big role to play in the All Blacks’ maul defence against Ireland but, again, a significant part in defusing Ireland’s potent lineout drive will come down to technique and attitude.
The other key element in the All Blacks’ strategy against Ireland, ranked one place below New Zealand at No.3 in the world, is the requirement to play through the middle with their big ball runners.
They improved this last weekend after identifying it as a work-on from the France victory but men such as the recalled Patrick Tuipulotu plus fellow lock Josh Lord and blindside flanker Vaa’i - indeed all the forwards including skipper Ardie Savea - will have to go to another level there tomorrow to create space for the outside backs.
“We’re know where they’re coming,” Rennie said yesterday of Ireland after announcing his team.
“They’ve got a really good kicking game and they’ll apply pressure through that. There’s a lot of detail within their attack and they’ve got a really good short passing game. They’re prepared to go multi phase. Our job is to get them out of their comfort zone; to ensure through how we defend that they’re below their best.
“We’re going to have bar up big time at set piece and we’re pretty confident with the group we’ve got that we can apply pressure there. And then it’s a case of us being really clinical. Our mindset has been excellent.”
Significantly, Rennie added: “We have to be prepared to play through them and squeeze them up a bit and pick them off as opposed to trying to go wide at every opportunity. Look, they’re a really good side. We’re aware of that. We genuinely respect their ability.”
The All Blacks have the game plan and firepower to trouble the Irish but the start is crucial and the pack could have a torrid time subduing the big forwards in green.
They must, though - the All Blacks’ 32-year, 52-Test unbeaten streak in suburban Auckland depends on it.
All Blacks match-day 23 to play Ireland
(Test caps in brackets)
1. Ethan de Groot (42), 2. Codie Taylor (108), 3. Tyrel Lomax (50), 4. Josh Lord (14), 5. Patrick Tuipulotu (56), 6. Tupou Vaa’i (46), 7. Luke Jacobson (26), 8. Ardie Savea (108) (Captain), 9. Cam Roigard (19), 10. Ruben Love (7), 11. Josh Moorby (1), 12. Jordie Barrett (80), 13. Quinn Tupaea (25), 14. Will Jordan (56), 15. Damian McKenzie (76).
Reserves: 16. Asafo Aumua (21), 17. Xavier Numia (1), 18. Fletcher Newell (36), 19. Anton Segner (1), 20. Peter Lakai (9), 21. Cortez Ratima (23), 22. Anton Lienert-Brown (89), 23. Caleb Clarke (34).
Unavailable due to injury: Fehi Fineanganofo (shoulder); Leroy Carter (shoulder)
Ireland
1. Tom O’Toole, 2. Dan Sheehan (c), 3. Tadhg Furlong, 4. Joe McCarthy, 5. James Ryan, 6. Tadhg Beirne, 7. Josh van der Flier, 8. Jack Conan, 9. Jamison Gibson-Park, 10. Sam Prendergast, 11. Jimmy O’Brien, 12. Stuart McCloskey, 13. Garry Ringrose, 14. Rob Baloucoune, 15. Hugo Keenan.
Reserves: 16. Ronan Kelleher, 17. Jeremy Loughman, 18. Thomas Clarkson, 19. Nick Timoney, 20. Sean Jansen, 21. Craig Casey, 22. Ciaran Frawley, 23. Bundee Aki.
Referee: Nic Berry (Australia).
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