Voters in oil-rich Alberta have overwhelmingly backed remaining in Canada, according to referendum results, boosting Prime Minister Mark Carney’s push for national unity as US President Donald Trump’s trade war and annexation threats rally Canadians around their country.
With more than 1.8 million votes counted and results reported from 84% of voting areas and locations, 75% of voters supported remaining in Canada, while 25% backed beginning a process toward separation, according to unofficial results from Elections Alberta.
The referendum was not a direct vote on independence. Approval would have set Alberta on a path toward a future vote on separation from Canada.
“It’s a great result for Canada that Albertans have chosen unity,” Carney told reporters Tuesday before a Cabinet meeting in Ottawa.
Carney said the roughly one-quarter of voters who backed beginning the separation process did not necessarily want independence, suggesting only a smaller “hard core” favoured leaving Canada. Some voters said they wanted to send Ottawa a message rather than separate.
“The result is absolutely clear. It’s a vast majority in favour of staying in Canada. And now is the time to work together for all Albertans and all Canadians,” Carney said.
'Alberta needs to be treated better'
Carney said he spoke with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on Tuesday morning about the referendum’s results and greater federal-provincial cooperation, including immigration. He said their first priority was supporting victims and families affected by the deadly military training fire at Canadian Forces Base Wainwright.
Alberta's separatists, however, saw a silver lining.
“It is fair to say that at least a quarter of Albertans feel that Alberta needs to be treated better,” said Keith Wilson, a leader of the separatist movement.
Smith welcomed the early results, saying they showed widespread support for remaining in Canada.
“Albertans have voted for a stronger Alberta in a united Canada,” Smith posted on social media.
Smith, who called the referendum amid pressure from separatists within her governing United Conservative Party, or UCP, despite opposing independence, said that she would address the province Tuesday evening about the results and Alberta’s future.
“We are a solid country that’s united from coast to coast to coast,” Thomas Lukaszuk, a former Alberta deputy premier who led the Forever Canadian campaign against separation, told supporters.
Fringe cause becomes a movement
Alberta, home to the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, is cowboy country and a conservative stronghold whose political culture has long had more in common with the American West than much of Canada. Resentment toward Canada's federal government in Ottawa runs deep, but hasn't traditionally translated into widespread support for independence.
Despite the overwhelming rejection, separatist leaders have said they turned a fringe cause into a movement that won’t disappear.
Separatist parties traditionally attracted only 1% or 2% of the vote, former Premier Jason Kenney said. Anger over Covid-19 restrictions helped mobilise activists who later embraced the separatist movement, he said.
Trump’s trade war and threats to make Canada the 51st US state have helped Carney rally support in Alberta, where Liberal prime ministers have historically been unpopular.
At a separatist referendum night gathering at an Edmonton restaurant, the crowd fell quiet as results rolled in.
“We’re not going anywhere,” said Jeff Rath of the Alberta Prosperity Project. “We’ve dominated the conversation in the last year. We’ve been educating Albertans on the benefits of independence, and we’re going to continue moving forward.”
Rath had said he would be thrilled with 30% support. He wants Smith ousted as UCP leader and said the party could splinter, potentially creating a new pro-independence party.
Others were not so optimistic.
Alberta separatist organiser and leader David Parker wrote in a social media post that the result was bleak.
“Independence feels far away, and we should not pretend this was not a defeat,” he wrote.
Ian Brodie, a University of Calgary political scientist and former chief of staff to Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, dismissed Rath and fellow separatist organiser Mitch Sylvestre as “nobodies”, saying they failed to gain traction even in a district that elected a separatist to Alberta’s legislature in 1982.
“Even on a very soft question — whether to hold a referendum on separation — they couldn’t gain real traction in the Olds-Didsbury district,” said Brodie.
A referendum on a referendum
Edmonton voter Shawn Campbell said he voted to begin the separation process even though he doesn’t want Alberta to leave Canada.
“It sends a message to Ottawa that Albertans are not happy,” he said.
Dave Malka, 59, of Edmonton, criticised spending money on a “referendum on a referendum” rather than health care.
With Trump threatening Canada, Malka said, “It seems to be happening at the absolute worst time when we should be united. Instead we’re fighting among ourselves.”
Edmonton resident Ali Khowaja, who immigrated to Canada six years ago, welcomed the result, saying he was glad Alberta had chosen unity rather than experiencing a Brexit-style rupture.
“Over the years, you’ve seen the consequences and what that meant,” he said. “I was concerned, especially as someone who is an immigrant to Canada.”
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