Analysis: Steel yourself for a four-party coalition

We've made it. Well almost. Election day is now just three days away.

For six weeks the parties have spent their time scrapping for your votes and often scrapping with each other.

Last night's 1News Verian poll shows roughly the same picture as our first campaign poll showed back at the end of September.

Here's the comparison:

National now 30%, then 28%

Labour now 29%, then 28%

Greens now 16%, then 16%

ACT now 10%, then 11%

NZ First now 8%, then 9%

Opportunity now 6%, then 6%

Te Pāti Māori now 0.4%, then 1%

In short it's too close to call, an extraordinary position to be in less than a week out.

But these latest results will be much more encouraging for the left than the right.

Here's a breakdown of what's good for each side and bad for the other in the final Verian poll numbers of the campaign.

Labour's vote has risen for the first time in months.

Te Pāti Māori are almost certain to cause an overhang for the left, likely to be four or even five seats. That's caused by a party winning more electorates than its party vote entitles it to – extra seats are added to parliament to compensate.

Labour and the Greens are prepared to work with Opportunity, whereas National and New Zealand First have ruled out working with Qiulae Wong's party.

Without a major overhang on the right, the left can form power on these numbers

National remains the largest party and an overhang on the right remains a real possibility.

Opportunity is prepared to work with the right bloc and would call National first in this scenario.

National's Christopher Luxon remains slightly more popular than Labour's Chris Hipkins in the preferred PM stakes.

Economic optimism is at its highest since December 2020.

The big takeaway is that Opportunity continues to hold the balance of power.

In fact even Labour, the Greens and Opportunity combined are just one seat short of a majority on these results.

The lifting of the National vote, albeit even slightly, combined with the drop in ACT and New Zealand First's vote, reduces the chances of an overhang on the right.

Also, contrary to what Luxon has been saying, it reduces the right's chances of winning a second term in power.

That being said, on tonight's results there still could be a chance of an overhang for the right.

National would need to lose eight seats to avoid it, which is a tall order that I've written about in previous weeks.

But even if they were to lose just four seats, leaving a four seat overhang, the left – with Opportunity – would still have the numbers to govern.

And with that we're back to where we started.

Luxon's decision to rule out working with Opportunity is by far the most significant of this campaign.

His party and those on the right have been hoping that Opportunity will crash below 5% on election night.

Whether or not that occurs, will be discovered on Saturday.

But with the party more likely than not to clear the threshold, Luxon's path to power potentially rests on him having to go back on his word.

A scenario voters already believe will occur.

In our early October poll, 40% of voters said Luxon should reconsider working with Opportunity compared to 33% who said he should keep his position of ruling them out.

Yesterday, Labour released a series of social posts from their MPs and candidates in marginal seats or ones they're hoping to flip.

The caption reads: "Every vote for the Green Party candidate will help National get back in."

It's a late acknowledgement from Labour that its chances of forming a government more than ever rests on their ability to hold their marginal seats and to flip National seats, as well as increasing their party vote.

On last night's numbers, if National was to pull off the very unlikely scenario of holding on to all of their seats, they would have the numbers to hold on to power via a mega overhang.

National knows the power of this too.

Yesterday, Luxon was campaigning in Nelson – a seat the party hopes to flip – while the day before he was in Tamaki, another seat the party hopes to get hold of.

But those chances may be quite low.

Last week I wrote about the 15 seats that have the power to decide the election, neither Nelson or Tamaki featured.

The fate of the election could come down to what National can hold versus what Labour can gain.

It's why the split-the-vote campaign has dominated headlines for the past number of weeks.

Luxon says the campaign has confused voters, but it may be the only thing that keeps him in power.

Hipkins and the Greens' Chlöe Swarbrick have both said in recent days they would be open to constitutional reform to deter the overhang in future elections.

If it decides the outcome for either side there will be questions from some about the elections legitimacy.

Whether Opportunity or an overhang decides the election remains to be seen.

More on this topic

Final poll: Election set to go down to wire as National's partners slip

With four days to go until polling day, no party has a clear lead, and the race is shaping up as a possible photo finish between left and right.

Politics

6:00pm

7:11

But what we can all be certain of is that this election is a nailbiter and the results will be the most interesting we have seen in some time.

Grab some popcorn and tune into TVNZ 1 or TVNZ+ from 7pm on Saturday, you won't want to miss it.