An emerging campaign urging Māori voters to split their party and electorate vote across the left bloc is being encouraged on social media as a means to stop the coalition from securing a second term – but a political commentator say it’s not as simple as that.
The strategy appearing online is suggesting voters give their electorate vote to a Te Pāti Māori candidate, and their party vote to the Green Party or Labour.
Te Pāti Māori has never reached the five per cent party threshold and the argument is those extra votes are better spent elsewhere.
But are they?
Lara Greaves, associate professor in politics at Victoria University of Wellington Te Herenga Waka, said on most occasions Te Pāti Māori party vote has either created an overhang or hasn’t necessarily advantaged them.
“There have been scenarios like when Rawiri Waititi won Waiariki and, because he crossed that threshold, he brought in Debbie Ngarewa-Packer with their party vote, so sometimes their party vote has advantaged them.
“But in the case now where they've held a lot of seats, and I think we can still expect them to hold some seats, it's potential that a party vote for them wouldn't really help them.”
The split vote strategy touted online could force an overhang in Parliament – when a party wins more electorate seats than its party vote entitles is to.
What is an overhang?
To break it down further, there are 120 seats in parliament. If a party gets 5% of the party vote, it’s entitled to 5% of those seats.
Five per cent roughly equates to six seats in total.
But what happens if that party also wins eight electorate seats? That's two more seats than the party vote allows.
It can't lose those electorate MPs so instead of taking seats away, seats are added to Parliament to accommodate for the two-seat "overhang", expanding the 120-seat House to 122.
But splitting party and electorate votes across the left bloc may not be as simple as it seems. (Source: 1News)
Greaves said there were a few different scenarios that could play out where an overhang is created.
"In any situation where a party doesn't do well in the party vote but does better in the electorates could lead to an overhang."
Assuming Te Pāti Māori retains its six Māori seats, as per the latest 1News Verian poll, it would have a four-seat overhang giving the left bloc enough to form a government.
"The overhang can really matter for the number in Parliament," said Greaves.
"They really could fundamentally affect the results of the election – that's what it comes down to.
"Because you've got different seats, more seats to negotiate with to try and form a coalition, to try to form a left or right bloc, whatever it is.”
She said expanding the size of parliament means more potential coalitions or more potential seats needed. "You still need 50% to be a government, but it gives more options, especially if those seven seats or four seats, whatever the overhang is, especially if those are left leaning politicians."
Left bloc parties unconvinced
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer would not say if they would back a one-tick strategy.
"We'll campaign on trusting our people to make the decision that they think is the right decision for them."
She said their priority is increasing the Māori roll ahead of the looming August 6 deadline for Māori to switch between rolls.
"Our strategy has been focused primarily on that [and] it has been for the whole five and a half years that we've been in parliament because the more Māori we have on the Māori roll the more representation.
"And so that's been our key focus and key strategy. You don't get to be a part of any decision if you're not on the Māori roll."
Labour MP Willie Jackson said the split vote strategy is not what they are considering or recommending.
"We're not talking about splitting the vote at all because we want a strong electorate vote and we will see the flow on in terms of the party vote."
Instead, they are pushing for two ticks.
"We're saying to them that the safest way forward is to give us both your ticks – we want your electorate vote and we want your party vote. We don't want to confuse our voters."
He said they wouldn’t be banking on an overhang either.
“We wouldn't be so bold to, or arrogant, to be talking about an overhang and the breakdown. No, it's better for us to look after what our people need and what they're asking for is some strong, Māori representation.”
Jackson said he understood the logic of the strategy, but people had to respect the electorate candidates.
He added that electorates prefer to have a "strong" MP at the "coalface" too.
"It means a little bit extra for the constituents - they know that their first and primary focus has to be the electorate. That's why they want that MP representing them."
For the Green Party’s Waiariki candidate Tania Waikato, there is more on the line than what voters may think.
“There is a bit of misinformation being spread about how safe I am, specifically versus, I guess, other candidates, and they're not telling the full story,” she said.
Waikato is at 13 on the party list which has her on the cusp of making it into Parliament off the list – or not – depending on the poll.
“That was the first thing I wanted to make really clear for our voters because a lot of people have been saying to me, 'Oh, I don't need to vote for you on my electorate vote because you're going to get in on the list anyway, right?'"
She said people do not "necessarily" consider whether the polls are tracking correctly or the processes around how the data is gathered.
"The thing with these polls is they are not just conducted by multiple different agencies with multiple different methods – it's only a thousand people that they are surveying at each time, and you cannot, with any degree of certainty, say that this is how it's going to be on election day."
Waikato believes the difference between an electorate MP and a list MP needs to be considered too.
"An electorate MP is the MP for your rohe (region). So, within a Māori electorate that's a really important distinction.
"If you want me to be in parliament advocating for Te Waiariki, advocating on your behalf for our local issues, then you must choose me as your electorate candidate."
She said there is a difference in terms of funding as well.
"An electorate MP gets funding to have candidate offices within their rohe so that they can serve their people and so that their people can go and see them, and they also get funding for full-time staff.
"Now, that is obviously a huge advantage if you've got such a big electorate like Te Waiariki, which encompasses multiple different general electorates, and you've got to get around all of those places to see your electorate voters, and to hear what it is that they want you to be advocating for."
Her message to constituents is simple.
"I say to them, 'look, the only way for you to ensure if you want me to be in parliament is to give me your electorate vote, give me your party vote as well and that will give me two chances of getting in. But it's not, by any means, a foregone conclusion."
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