Analysis: 144-Test veteran Beauden Barrett is likely to start against the Stormers after being usurped by Ruben Love. His response will be revealing, writes Patrick McKendry.
Richie Mo’unga’s continued ineligibility means All Blacks head coach Dave Rennie, a man known for his attention to detail, is already on Plan B for his first-five selections ahead of the first three matches of the South Africa tour.
Rennie has previously stated that the tour games against the Stormers (which kicks off in Cape Town on Saturday morning NZT), Sharks (next Wednesday) and Bulls (three days later) would have been the first opportunity for Mo’unga to press his case for the No.10 jersey for the first Test against the Springboks on August 23 but now it is Beauden Barrett who is attempting to make up for lost time.
Barrett’s slip down the pecking order has been in direct correlation with Ruben Love’s rise this year, the latter taking his chances in starting all three Nations Championship Tests last month superbly.
Love, now 25, has never lacked for confidence in the black jersey after making his debut (at fullback) in 2024, but he has shown poise and resilience – he was yellow carded after two minutes in the first Test of the year last month - and an uncanny ability to lead Rennie’s ambitious and optimistic game plan.
He has vision, pace and agility – all of which make him a threat with the ball.
Last weekend we saw that the 32-year-old Mo’unga, after a scratchy start by his standards following three years in Japan, still has those qualities (at NPC level, anyway), and we are about to see whether Barrett, 35, still does after a quiet Super Rugby season with the Blues and zero game time last month.
Rennie, at his squad announcement last week, said Barrett would start against the Stormers, a message that had presumably already been given to Barrett and one that would have been very welcome indeed.
With Mo’unga almost back in the mix – he will be eligible for the two Bledisloe Cup Tests against Australia in October and the Nations Championship Tests a month later if he’s not called up earlier as an injury replacement – there is a sense that time is running out for Barrett, who in 2023 signed a long-term contract that will keep him in New Zealand until after next year’s World Cup.
He has seen the door all but close at fullback, with Damian McKenzie now Rennie’s preferred No.15 and McKenzie’s fellow outside backs Will Jordan and Josh Moorby also options there, and while his experience and knowledge will potentially be valuable for the rest of the international year he is unlikely to be satisfied with being merely seen as a good role model and occasional starter.
However, a potential upside is that Barrett will likely find Rennie’s game plan more suited to his strengths than the Blues’ narrow, forward-oriented approach over the past couple of years.
According to a report in The Times of London, who quoted figures from Stats Perform, New Zealand over the first three Tests of Rennie’s reign averaged 138 rucks in possession per 80 minutes, up from 99 during the Scott Robertson era.
Their average number of passes has climbed to 260 from 189, and their carries to 178 from 131 as their kicks from hand have dropped from 25 to 19.
Even more starkly, figures from the analysis company, which has collected data on Test matches since 2010, show the 310 passes that the All Blacks amassed in their 47-17 victory over Italy in Wellington was the second-highest total ever registered by a Six Nations or Rugby Championship team.
The Times, in a comprehensive analysis piece, noted the relatively small sample size, but added: “Ireland hold the top spot here, thanks to the 324 they put together in their 2023 World Cup quarter-final loss to the All Blacks. Of those passes, 87 took place during the final play that ended with Sam Whitelock’s dramatic turnover.”
Running and passing and being in the right place at the right time have always been strengths of Barrett’s, who has played 144 Tests.
We’re about to see whether they still are.
Rennie will name his first match-day squad of the seven-game tour in the early hours of tomorrow morning.
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